PROPOSITION BETS = BAD BETS

“Professor Einstein, is there a method by which an astute player can win by betting the proposition wagers in the center of the table?”

He regarded me with his usual revulsion and ordered a triple Vodka with Ovaltine back; he slugged down the Vodka and ordered another.

“In any winning scheme for craps, the one roll proposition bet makes as little sense as a clown at a funeral, and the player who consistently makes these bets should have his sphincter transplanted to his forehead so the whole world can see him coming. This longshot player is little more than a baboon with money. But, a baboon might eat the money and at least satisfy his daily requirement for fiber. There is no reason to make these bets when much better bets are available.” He bummed a cigarette from the bartender and took a sip of Ovaltine.

“You may have heard of the Manhattan Project back in the early 1940’s. Ostensibly, it was a crash program to develop the A-bomb, but in actuality it was a craps research program commissioned by the Army to investigate why all the troops were shooting dice - it was a clever smokescreen that had nothing to do with nuclear weapons, which were developed by accident by a witch doctor in Krakatoa in the previous century. In any case, the Manhattan Project, under the leadership of Dr. Robert Oppenheimer, the Father of Quantum Crapshooting, has proven that the longshot bets must be parlayed. It is therefore no accident that the Atomic Test Site was moved to Nevada, where gambling is legal, and that the Rosenbergs were actually executed for selling this play to the Russians.”

“Really, Professor?”

“Shut up, you idiot, and listen: If the player feels compelled to make these bets he should find a casino where the payoffs on the two and twelve are thirty-to-one or thirty-one FOR one, or on the three and eleven are fifteen-to-one or sixteen FOR one. A casino that pays thirty FOR one or fifteen FOR one has actually increased its vig on these bets by 50% and 20%, respectively, and does not deserve our patronage. Understand?”

“Yes, Professor.”

“Now, let’s look at these one-roll wonders and see what must be done:

ANY CRAPS: Pays seven to one. Odds are nine to one, house vig is 11.11% four ways to win, thirty-two ways to lose.

The Play: Bet one unit for seven consecutive rolls. On any win parlay it all back for one roll, and if successful parlay again. On three consecutive craps the Baboon should pick up $456 for bucking odds of 729 to one.

11 or 3: Pays fifteen to one. Odds are eighteen to one. House vig is 11.11%, two ways to win, thirty-four ways to lose.

The Play: Bet one unit for fifteen consecutive rolls. On any win parlay it all back for one roll and if successful parlay it again. On three consecutive hits the Baboon should pick up his $3,840 for beating odds of 5,832 to one.

HI-LO: Two and twelve together, Same as above.

HI 12 or LO 2: Pays thirty to one. Odds are thirty-five to one. House vig is 13.89% one way to win, thirty-five ways to lose.

The Play: Make thirty consecutive bets of one unit each. On any win parlay all back to receive $930 if successful. Baboon may parlay again to win $27,900 against odds of 42,875 to one.

HORN 2, 3, 11, 12: Pays thirty to one on two and twelve; fifteen to one on three and eleven. Bet must be four times the table minimum. Six ways to win, thirty ways to lose. House vig is 16.66%. Tied for the worst bet on the table.

The Play: Bet four units, four times in succession. If a winner, parlay down, please. Payoffs will vary. Baboon may parlay a third time.

ANY SEVEN, BIG RED: Pays four to one. Odds are six to one. House vig is 16.66%, six ways to win, thirty ways to lose. Tied for the worst bet on the table.

The Play: Make nine bets of 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4 and five dollars, and parlay after any win. A successful parlay at the five dollar level will return $125 total. Should Baboon hit his third seven on his next parlay attempt, his total payoff is $525 less $17 bet for bucking odds of 1,296 to one.”

“Professor, I know you don’t like these bets, but don’t you ever just get a hunch and throw a chip on one of the Prop bets?”

“No.”